Analysis of key states by AP

Delegate Estimates Bush 208 McCain 104

Jan. 24 Iowa caucuses (Bush 42%, Forbes 30%)
Feb. 1 New Hampshire (McCain 49%, Bush 30%)
Feb. 8 Delaware (Bush 51%, McCain 25%)
Feb. 19 South Carolina (Bush 53%, McCain 42%)
Feb. 22 Michigan (McCain 50%, Bush 43%)
Feb. 22 Arizona (McCain 60%, Bush 36%)
Feb. 26 Puerto Rico (Bush 93% , McCain 6%)
Feb. 29 Virginia (Bush 53%, McCain 44%)
Feb. 29 North Dakota (Bush 76%, McCain 19%)
Feb. 29 Washington (Bush 58%, McCain 38%)

March 7
California "State Sen. Jim Brulte, one of California's top operatives, is in Bush's camp. McCain's team includes a former Capitol Hill aide, Brian Nestande, and a well-known anti-tax advocate, Joel Fox. McCain hopes to be able to spend $6 million to $8 million, though the Bush campaign doubts he'll raise that much money. The McCain camp expects to be outspent 2-to-1 but considers California's history of campaign finance reform and term limits tailor-made for McCain."
Connecticut Georgia Hawaii Maine Maryland Massachusetts
"Gov. Paul Cellucci heads the Bush effort. McCain will benefit from exposure in nearby New Hampshire and has a staff in place."
Minnesota Missouri New York
"Bush's team is headed by Gov. George Pataki. McCain is backed by Staten Island's borough president, Guy Molinari, and won a high-profile fight against the establishment to get on the state's ballot.")
Ohio ("Gov. Bob Taft is for Bush. McCain's top supporter, Sen. Mike DeWine, is helping in South Carolina."
Rhode Island Vermont primaries

March 10 Colorado primary Utah primary Wyoming caucuses
March 14 Florida Louisiana Mississippi Oklahoma Tennessee Texas primaries

In a Michigan GOP primary where 51% of the voters were not Republican, Bush took 67% of the Republicans but MAC took a like number of Independents and over 80% of the crossover Democrats in a record turnout. In the exit polls the voters gave more positives and fewer negatives to MAC, saying he said what he believed more often than Bush. Voters also believed that Bush was more responsible for unfair attacks than MAC. Pundits thought Pat Robertson's radio Mac attack proved harmful to Bush, as did his visit to anti-Catholic Bob Jones University.

CNN Declares Bush the "substantial winner" in record turnout. While the Christian Right, which made up 60% of the GOP voters, supported Bush 75%-25%, the non-Christian Right supported McCain 52%-46%. 39% of the voters were I's and D's, who supported McCain as well. Results with 99% reporting precincts

Commentary:"Bush demolished McCain among Republican respondents to the exit poll, 68 percent to 26 percent. Among independents, those numbers were reversed, with Bush winning 34 percent and McCain taking 61 percent. But because independents made up only 30 percent of the voters, and Republicans 61 percent, Bush took a cushy lead. Only 9 percent of the exit poll subjects claimed to be Democrats: 16 percent of them voted for Bush and 82 percent for McCain." --Jack Shafer

Commentary: John McCain's pollster said today that between 450,000 to 500,000 voters would have to turn out Saturday if McCain were to have "a fighting chance" of winning the South Carolina Republican primary. But Bill McInturff discounted predictions that the vote totals could climb even higher: "I can't believe we're going to have 800,000 votes as has been reported on CNN. On the other hand, we've never had a South Carolina primary of this magnitude where candidates have spent so much money." Cox Newspapers' Andrew J. Glass reports that only 276,000 people, about 10 percent of those eligible, turned out to vote in the 1996 GOP contest between Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan. --Cox News, 2/18/00

CNN: 21 POLLS FAIL TO OPEN IN SOUTH CAROLINA
CNN: GOP EXIT POLL QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS
AP: MAC CAMPAIGN CONCEDES IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

"Exit polls showed Bush did best among voters who are middle class, elderly, conservative and believe he is likely to win the presidency. McCain voters tended to be affluent, well-educated and self-identified independents and moderates who said they were looking for a candidate who stands up for what he believes. Forbes, who has pushed for a flat tax since his failed 1996 run, did well among voters who listed taxes as their top concern.

CNN Analysis, Based on Exit Polls

REPUBLICANS GO FOR MAC OVER BUSH, 45%-35%

CONSERVATIVES FAVOR MAC OVER BUSH, 38%-34%

MAC INDEPENDENTS IN A LANDSLIDE OVER BUSH, 60%-19%

51% FEEL MAC SAYS WHAT HE BELIEVES, ONLY 19% FOR BUSH

Republican--McCain the Winner with 98% of the Vote In

1. John McCain 49%

2. George W. Bush 31%

3. Steve Forbes 13%

4. Alan Keyes 6%

5. Gary Bauer 1%

Democratic--Gore the Winner With 98% of the Vote In

1. Al Gore 52%

2. Bill Bradley 47%

News Reports

MCCAIN REVELS IN DECISIVE WIN (AP 7:32 ET)

WHY THEY VOTED THE WAY THEY DID

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